EUR/USD Holds Above 200-Day MA Ahead of ECB Verdict
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EUR/USD is consolidating a minor uptrend just below 1.1640, its best level in two weeks, as traders position for the ECB's decision. The pair has reclaimed its 200-day moving average, a shift that shifts the technical bias constructive for euro bulls provided price holds above 1.1604.
Markets are pricing a 25bp hike to 2.50%, driven by energy-led inflation risks rather than robust growth. That distinction matters: Christine Lagarde's tone on further tightening will likely dictate whether EUR/USD extends gains or fades back toward support.
A hawkish hold above 1.1604 keeps the uptrend structure intact, while a break below would expose the pair to a retest of the prior range floor.