EUR/USD Forecast: Uptrend Holds Near 1.1640 Ahead of ECB Call

EUR/USD is trading close to a two-week high near 1.1640, with the pair holding a minor uptrend heading into the ECB decision. Markets are pricing in a 25-basis-point hike that would lift the deposit rate to 2.50%, and the pair's reclaim of its 200-day moving average adds technical weight to the bullish bias.

The immediate forecast hinges on 1.1604, now the key short-term support. A clean hold above this level keeps the uptrend structure intact and opens room toward fresh highs, while a break below would undercut the recent recovery.

Christine Lagarde's tone on energy-driven inflation risk will be the swing factor. Any hint that further tightening is on the table beyond this meeting could extend EUR/USD gains, while a cautious message risks a pullback toward the moving-average support zone.