IEA Slashes 2026 Oil Supply Outlook by 5.7 Million Bpd
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The IEA has revised its 2026 global oil supply forecast sharply lower, now projecting a decline of 5.7 million barrels per day, or roughly 6%, up from the 4.3 million bpd shortfall estimated just a month earlier. The agency no longer expects normal Gulf flows to resume this year, pushing the recovery timeline into 2027.
Despite the bearish supply outlook, U.S. producers are responding to elevated prices: the Baker Hughes rig count climbed to 591 this week, up 52 year-on-year, with oil rigs rising to 450. Meanwhile, the Fed's proximity to a September rate hike, driven partly by oil-fueled inflation, adds another layer of complexity for commodities traders navigating this volatile supply-demand landscape.