New Barrels From Venezuela, Canada Test WTI's Risk Premium

While Hormuz-driven disruption keeps WTI elevated, longer-term supply developments could eventually temper the benchmark's geopolitical premium. Chevron's plan to double its Venezuela rig count under a $7 billion, five-year push targeting 600,000 bpd signals a meaningful non-OPEC supply addition entering the market.

Simultaneously, Canada's Trans Mountain pipeline hit full capacity in June and is adding another 300,000 bpd of throughput by 2028, redirecting Alberta barrels toward Asian buyers. Uganda's planned 2027 debut as an oil exporter adds a further incremental supply source. None of these directly displace WTI pricing today, but they represent building counterweights traders should track for medium-term supply-demand rebalancing.