Oil Spike Above $100 Revives Fed Hike and Recession Bets

Brent Crude cleared $100 per barrel for the first time since July this week, with WTI following suit, as escalating U.S.-Iran tensions removed any near-term hope of a negotiated settlement. The move has sharply lifted market pricing for a Fed rate hike at next week's meeting.

This marks the first time recession chatter has resurfaced since the early phase of the Iran conflict, underscoring how quickly energy commodities can transmit shocks into broader macro sentiment. Six months of elevated oil prices already strained global and U.S. growth expectations earlier in the war.

Traders positioning across FX and rates markets are now watching energy commodities as the primary swing factor for the Fed's next move.