EUR/USD Holds Above 200-Day MA Ahead of ECB Decision

EUR/USD is consolidating near a two-week high around 1.1640, having reclaimed its 200-day moving average — a technically significant shift that flips the medium-term bias back toward bulls. The pair's minor uptrend remains intact heading into the ECB decision.

1.1604 is now the level to watch on the downside. A daily close below this zone would invalidate the current structure and expose the pair to a retest of lower support bands. On the upside, holding above the 200-day MA keeps the path open toward fresh two-week highs.

With markets pricing a 25bp hike to 2.50%, volatility around Lagarde's guidance could trigger a sharp break in either direction. Traders should watch for a decisive close rather than reacting to intraday wicks around these key technical zones.