Key Support at 1.1604 Defines EUR/USD's Near-Term Trend

The 1.1604 support zone has emerged as the pivotal technical marker for EUR/USD's short-term trajectory. With the pair trading near 1.1640, just above its 200-day moving average, bulls need this level to hold to keep the minor uptrend structurally intact.

Energy-driven inflation pressures are feeding into rate-hike expectations, and this macro backdrop is aligning with the current bullish technical setup. A break and close below 1.1604 would signal a shift in momentum, opening the door to deeper retracement toward prior consolidation zones.

Conversely, sustained trade above the 200-day MA with rising momentum indicators would reinforce the case for continuation toward fresh highs beyond the current two-week peak, particularly if the ECB delivers a hawkish surprise alongside the widely expected 25bp hike.