USD/JPY Chart Setup Hinges on BoJ Rate Path, Not Just Fed
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The technical standoff at 156.13/50 isn't happening in a vacuum. Markets are pricing an expected BoJ hike to 1.25%, but chart resistance suggests traders doubt this alone will reverse yen weakness without stronger tightening signals from Governor Ueda.
This fundamental backdrop reinforces the technical picture: unless the BoJ surprises hawkishly, the path of least resistance on the chart remains upward toward the 156.50 ceiling, with 155.45 as the line in the sand for bulls.
A confirmed break of either boundary will likely require a genuine shift in the BoJ's tone, making this week's central bank commentary as important as the raw chart levels for anyone trading the pair.