Iraq Exports Near Pre-War Levels, Capping WTI's Upside

While WTI trades firmly above the $100 mark on Hormuz-driven fear, supply-side data from Iraq complicates the bullish narrative. Iraq's oil ministry reported October exports averaging over 3.4 million barrels per day, a jump of roughly 750,000 bpd from September's 2.65 million.

That figure puts Baghdad close to its pre-war range of 3.3-3.5 million bpd, with 250,000 bpd now moving via the Iraq-Turkey pipeline as alternative routing absorbs some of the Hormuz-related disruption risk. This recovery signals that regional producers are adapting logistics faster than markets initially priced in.

For WTI traders, the Iraq data represents a potential ceiling on further upside. If other Gulf exporters similarly reroute volumes, the current geopolitical premium embedded in prices north of $100 could face downward pressure once shipping fears ease.