S&P 500 Selloff: History Points to Post-Midterm Relief

The current stock-market selloff has investors on edge, but historical data offers a counterpoint. Going back to 1950, the S&P 500 has delivered an average return of 15.5% in the nine-month stretch between Election Day and the following June 30.

Notably, this seasonal pattern has held regardless of which party wins, suggesting that post-election clarity itself—rather than specific policy outcomes—may be the driver behind the rebound. This reduces binary political risk as the sole factor shaping near-term index direction.

For traders navigating the present downturn, this historical base rate doesn't guarantee a repeat performance, but it does provide context for assessing whether current weakness represents a longer-term buying opportunity or a structural shift in trend.