Forex Technical Analysis: Fed Odds Reinforce XAU/USD Uptrend
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FedWatch-implied rate probabilities are shifting hawkish as U.S. CPI holds at 3.7%, and this macro backdrop is feeding directly into the technical narrative on XAU/USD. Rate expectations have historically correlated with gold's medium-term trend direction, and current positioning supports the existing bullish structure.
Recent COT data shows sentiment skewed in favor of continued upside, reinforcing the technical case for holding above the 4,000–4,120 support shelf rather than a trend reversal.
Combined with the bullish flag pattern on the daily chart, the confluence of macro-driven rate expectations and net-long positioning strengthens the technical argument for a push toward 4,260–4,408 resistance in the sessions ahead.