EUR/USD Chart Coils as Fed-ECB Pause Nears Decision Point
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EUR/USD is compressing into a narrowing wedge pattern, with price oscillating around its 50-day moving average as markets price in a near-certain October pause from both the Fed and ECB. Momentum indicators are flattening, with RSI hovering near the neutral 50 line, reflecting a market in wait-and-see mode.
A break above the recent swing high would open the path toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior leg down, while a failure to hold the wedge support risks a retest of the lower range boundary.
French debt tensions add asymmetric downside risk to the euro leg, meaning any breakdown could accelerate quickly once the pause is confirmed and December hike odds are repriced.