Iraq Eyes 10 Million Bpd, But OPEC+ Quota Fight Looms
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Iraq is making an aggressive supply-side bet. Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi confirmed Baghdad's target of 8-10 million barrels per day within six years, up from roughly 4 million bpd before the Iran war disrupted regional output.
To get there, Iraq needs OPEC+ to loosen its grip. Oil and finance ministers were dispatched to Saudi Arabia to press the case for a higher quota, while OPEC+ has commissioned DeGolyer and MacNaughton to independently verify maximum sustainable production capacity across member states.
This sets up a structural tension: Iraq's expansion ambitions collide with a cartel already managing tight global supply amid the Hormuz crisis, raising the odds of quota friction in coming OPEC+ meetings.