WTI Faces Refiner Squeeze as Canadian Oil Sands Output Falls

US refineries have operated at near-capacity for months, offsetting lost Middle East fuel supply and pushing American fuel exports to record levels. That run-rate now faces a challenge as Canadian oil sands enter seasonal maintenance, with Rystad Energy projecting a 300,000 barrel-per-day production drop in September.

Reduced heavy crude flows from Canada typically tighten feedstock availability for Gulf Coast and Midwest refiners, a dynamic that historically supports WTI differentials even as broader inventory data points to ample supply elsewhere in the system.

Traders watching WTI should monitor whether this seasonal Canadian disruption offsets bearish signals from rising US and Iraqi crude stockpiles, creating a mixed near-term price setup.